A DSM-based decision-support framework for proactive risk identification in pre-licensing project processes
International Journal of Construction Management, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Publication Date: 2026
- Doi Number: 10.1080/15623599.2026.2707230
- Journal Name: International Journal of Construction Management
- Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, INSPEC, Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO), Engineering Source (EBSCO)
- Keywords: BIM Execution plan, Decision support system, design structure matrix (DSM), digital twin, proactive risk ıdentification, project management, transferability
- Istanbul Gelisim University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
Pre-licensing architectural design is iterative and cyclical, and linear project management models cannot adequately explain it. This paper presents a decision-support framework that quantifies iteration and delay risks from task-stakeholder interactions through a Design Structure Matrix (DSM)-based model. Using an embedded four-case design, task dependencies and feedback intensities were modelled in a weighted DSM drawing on project logs, revision records, and coordination notes. DSM metrics were combined with past delay impact and revision frequency in a Weighted Scoring Model, yielding Total Risk Scores (TRS) per task and Normalised Risk Scores (NRS) for inter-phase comparison. NRS thresholds, derived from natural distribution gaps, flag high-risk nodes early and inform intervention priorities. Robustness was verified through five-scenario sensitivity analysis (Spearman ρ ≥ 0.866) and a single-variable transferability test on a fifth project (Spearman ρ = 0.977; 80.8% class stability). The framework converts process data into traceable risk indicators for BIM Execution Plans and digital twin environments.