A multi-criteria assessment of decarbonization pathways for heavy-duty trucks


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Şahin A. E., Özekinci Ş.

Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability, cilt.6, sa.2, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus) identifier

Özet

Despite growing interest in alternative heavy-duty truck (HDT) powertrains, limited research has evaluated their techno-economic competitiveness across major freight markets while explicitly considering logistics and transportation cost structures. This study examines whether diesel‚ BEVs (battery electric vehicles), and FCEVs (fuel cell electric vehicles) are market-competitive for freight trucks in the US‚ EU‚ and China by assessing the competitiveness of these powertrains‚ taking into account logistics and transport costs such as vehicle purchase price‚ maintenance and insurance costs‚ payload‚ infrastructure investment and operation costs and policy-related cost exemptions to ease the relative competitiveness assessment of alternative HDT powertrains‚ a three-stage multi criteria decision making method approach is proposed in the first stage of the framework‚ the key techno-economic evaluation criteria are identified and their relative weights are computed using the criterion impact loss method second‚ the diesel‚ BEV and FCEV alternatives are ranked by applying the weighted criteria using two ranking techniques: namely‚ the measurement of alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution and the combined compromise solution approaches finally‚ a robustness analysis is performed using the evaluation based on distance from average solution approach The results indicate that diesel trucks are the most cost-competitive in the United States and the EU‚ due to lower cost volatility and established logistics infrastructure BEVs are also cost-competitive in certain regional and methodological settings‚ particularly in the EU In China, the relative competitiveness of powertrain technologies varies across methods, with no single technology consistently dominating. FCEVs generally rank as the least competitive option across regions. Infrastructure readiness, energy pricing, regulatory incentives, and logistics cost structures strongly influence HDT powertrain competitiveness. Incorporating logistics cost considerations into techno-economic assessments provides more realistic insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders when designing freight transport decarbonization strategies and investment priorities.