Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting – JEFA , cilt.10, sa.4, ss.203-216, 2023 (Hakemli Dergi)
ABSTRACT
Purpose- This study delves into the
intricate dynamics surrounding oil prices, terms of trade, and unemployment,
pivotal factors exerting profound effects on the developmental trajectories of
developing countries.
Methodology- Employing
the Vector Autoregressive Model and Granger Causality Test, the research
scrutinizes data from 1980 to 2021, with a focus on Turkey as a case study.
Granger causality analysis reveals bidirectional causality between terms of
trade and unemployment as well as between oil prices and unemployment.
Findings The findings underscore the significance of targeted policies to address challenges in
developing nations. Strategies aimed at reducing energy dependence,
diversifying energy sources, and implementing strategic foreign trade planning
emerge as crucial components to steer these countries toward sustainable
development. Furthermore, the study advocates for the implementation of
employment policies to effectively tackle unemployment rates.
Conclusion- The
reciprocal relationships observed between these variables highlight the need
for comprehensive and multifaceted approaches to address the intricate
interplay of economic factors influencing the developmental processes of
developing countries. The insights gleaned from this research not only
contribute to a nuanced understanding of these relationships but also provide a
foundation for informed policy recommendations to promote robust and
sustainable development in developing nations.