India–China rivalry: Geopolitical implications for South Asia and the Indian Ocean region


Khakimzhon T., Ullah R.

I. Lisansüstü Akademik Çalışmalar Kongresi [1st Graduate Academic Studies Congress], İstanbul, Türkiye, 4 - 05 Mayıs 2026, (Özet Bildiri)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Özet Bildiri
  • Basıldığı Şehir: İstanbul
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Türkiye
  • İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This article examines the evolving India-China rivalry and its implications for South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), with particular emphasis on shifting patterns of geopolitical competition, regional influence, and maritime security governance. It argues that the interaction between India’s strategic regional posture and China’s expanding economic and infrastructural engagement is progressively reshaping the strategic architecture of Asia. Methodologically, this study employs a qualitative geopolitical analysis grounded in neorealist theory and the Regional Security Complex framework. It adopts a comparative analytical approach to examine the strategic behavior of India and China across South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. The research draws on secondary data, including peer-reviewed academic studies, policy documents, and think-tank reports. These sources are selected for their relevance to maritime security dynamics, regional connectivity initiatives, and patterns of power competition. The findings indicate that the India–China rivalry is structured by a dual dynamic of systemic competition and selective functional cooperation. China’s regional influence operates through economic statecraft, infrastructure investment, and connectivity initiatives, particularly under the Belt and Road framework, generating long-term structural dependencies across South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. In contrast, India’s influence is sustained through institutional diplomacy, strategic partnerships, and maritime security initiatives aimed at maintaining regional balance. Overall, the study concludes that the India–China rivalry functions as a structural driver of geopolitical transformation in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region, reshaping regional security dynamics and contributing to the reconfiguration of power distribution within the broader Indo-Pacific system.

 

Keywords: India-China rivalry, South Asia, Indian Ocean Region, geopolitics, maritime security, foreign policy, power dynamics.