Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Drought Dynamics: Modeling and Assessment to Confront a Changing Climate, Elsevier, ss.109-131, 2026
Extreme climatic events such as droughts and huge rainfall events have been observed to be more frequent and intense as a results of climate change and global warming. Additionally, those events are projected to be more common in the forthcoming years. However, working on the outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs) under various emission scenarios can be considered as a scientific tool to have a reliable point of view about the future climatic condition and its effects on human activities. Different scenarios have different structures and projections about the future human activities including socioeconomic development patterns which are represented in a group of scenarios called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). In this chapter, we tried to provide a methodology for application of the outputs of GCM to project extreme climatic events. On the other hand, uncertainties in the outputs of those models can affect the accuracy of the modeling results. To deal with this issue, together with implementing of high number of models, bias-correction methods should be applied to increase the level of confidence in the modeling. As a result, the application of extreme climatic indices and their properties are given in this chapter. Finally, an example for application of the outputs of GCMs for drought projection is given at the end of the chapter.