Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Tax Revenue in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Approach


ÇIĞDEM G., ALTAYLAR M.

İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, cilt.71, sa.1, ss.21-38, 2021 (Hakemli Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 71 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Dergi Adı: İstanbul İktisat Dergisi
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.21-38
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: GDP, Taxes, Hidden cointegration
  • İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The tax revenues, which constitute the most important incomeitem of the state, provide the necessary financing for sustainableeconomic growth in evolved countries, development efforts indeveloping economies, and form the basis of social welfare.Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and taxrevenues is significant and numerous empirical studies havebeen carried out on this subject. However, there is no studytesting the hidden cointegration. This paper aims to test thepresence of hidden cointegration between economic growthand tax revenues and intends to develop further typologies. Totest the relationship, data on the ratio of annual tax revenues/GDP between 1985-2018 in Turkey was used, and HiddenCointegration Approach developed by Granger and Yoon (2002)and crouching error correction model were applied. The analysisresults demonstrated that the tax revenues decreased acrossvariables and that there was a cointegration relationship in periodswhen the GDP increased. This manuscript is a contribution to theliterature since a different technique was performed to examinethe relationship between growth and tax revenues, and the resultsobtained will be crucial for decision-makers.