Modelling the Relationship Between Public Expenditure, Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Türkiye Using the AARDL Approach

KÖSTEKÇİ A., ÇELİK A.

Ekonomika, cilt.103, sa.2, ss.90-108, 2024 (Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 103 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.15388/ekon.2024.103.2.5
  • Dergi Adı: Ekonomika
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Central & Eastern European Academic Source (CEEAS), EconLit, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.90-108
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Economic growth, Fiscal policy, Public expenditure, Tax revenue, Türkiye
  • İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy in Türkiye, where fiscal policy faces several challenges. Using annual time series data from 1980 to 2021, we examine the impact of tax and public expenditure subcomponents on GDP using the augmented autoregressive distributed lag (A-ARDL) bound test approach proposed by Sam et al. (2019). The A-ARDL test results indicate that tax revenue has a positive impact on economic growth in the short run, while tax revenue has a negative impact on economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, we conclude that increases in current and investment expenditures have a positive impact on economic growth in the short and long run, while increases in transfer expenditures have a negative impact on economic growth in the short run.