Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
International Journal of Engineering Technologies, cilt.6, sa.4, ss.62-68, 2021 (Hakemli Dergi)
The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa
Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data
recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5
and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho
and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any
change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short
duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of
the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in
the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the
number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of
rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in
the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.