Graduate Employment and Earnings Outcomes in Logistics and Transport Programs in Türkiye: A Descriptive Program-Level Analysis

Öztürk Koçali E.

Türkiye Mesleki ve Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, cilt.8, sa.2026, ss.281-299, 2026 (Hakemli Dergi)

Özet

The present study evaluates the widely expected high employment opportunities available for graduates of Turkish transport and logistics programs based on the official statistics. The twelve programs differ in registered employment rate, time to first job placement and earning group. Applying the official information provided by TÜİK-TURKSTAT about five bachelor's (Logistics Management; Maritime Business Administration, Aviation Management, International Trade and Logistics, Marine Transportation Engineering) and seven associate-degree (Rail Systems Operations, Transportation and Traffic Services, Civil Air Transportation Operations, Logistics, Maritime and Port Management, Marine Transportation and Operations, Postal Services) programs for the period of 2022-2025, the study examines the contrast between the expectations and reality in the context of the employment and earnings of the graduates. The study is exploratory and descriptive, not causal. It uses the techniques of panel descriptive statistics, rank-stability statistics and single-term reference trend deviation measure (similarly to shift-share approach, but without industry mix and competition effects component). The deviations are further related to the sectoral indices such as foreign trade, cargo movement at ports and air traffic. Most of the programs generally follow their general trend with a few exceptions among aviation-related and maritime programs. While aviation-related programs demonstrate faster-than-trend performance along with 29.5% growth in number of aircraft movements, many of maritime programs reveal a decrease despite the stability or growth in port cargo movement. The results are descriptive associations and do not indicate any causalities. Job Matching Theory and Signaling Theory are applied only as theoretical frameworks and are not empirically tested. Noteworthy, Marine Transportation Engineering program demonstrates the paradox of the highest earning group combined with the lowest and decreasing employment rate.