Dam failure analysis and flood disaster simulation under various scenarios

PAŞA Y., PEKER İ. B., Hacı A., GÜLBAZ S.

Water Science and Technology, vol.87, no.5, pp.1214-1231, 2023 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 87 Issue: 5
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.2166/wst.2023.052
  • Journal Name: Water Science and Technology
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Analytical Abstracts, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), BIOSIS, Biotechnology Research Abstracts, CAB Abstracts, Chimica, Compendex, Environment Index, Geobase, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Page Numbers: pp.1214-1231
  • Keywords: buttress dam, consecutive dams, dam failure analysis, flood hazard map, HEC-RAS
  • Istanbul Gelisim University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of a possible dam failure under various scenarios and to generate a flood hazard map for two consecutive dams located in a study area with a dense-residential region and a heavy-traffic highway. Two consecutive dams consist of Elmalı 2, a concrete-buttress dam and Elmalı 1, an earth-fill gravity dam in the upstream and downstream, respectively. Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was used to develop a dam failure model. Dam failure scenarios were examined regarding three main criteria: the Breach Formation Time (BFT), the Number of Failed Buttresses (NFB) of Elmalı 2, and the Reservoir Volume Ratio (RVR) of Elmalı 1. Accordingly, flood peak depth (Hp), peak flow rate (Qp), peak velocity (vp), and time to reach the peak (tp) are discussed. The results showed that BFT and NFB of Elmalı 2 were highly effective on these values, whereas RVR of Elmalı 1 had no significant effect. Moreover, the total area affected by potential floods was calculated with a comparative areal change analysis using flood inundation and flood hazard maps obtained. Estimated damage costs indicate that in the worst-case scenario, more than 500 buildings will be affected in the region.