Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
ULUSLARARASI 9. SOCRATES SOSYAL BİLİMLER KONGRESİ, İstanbul, Türkiye, 16 - 18 Ağustos 2024
Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, big data, and information technologies have further enhanced the impact of Research and Development (R&D) activities on economic growth. R&D activities have shaped production processes by reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and expanding production diversity. This diversity has, in turn, led to the emergence of new market opportunities. 291 As markets expand, countries’ trade volumes have increased, contributing to their global competitiveness and economic strength. For developing countries, R&D activities are particularly critical in the rapid adoption of technological innovations and their integration into economic growth. In this context, patent applications, which result from R&D activities, are considered indicators of technological innovation and are believed to have a significant impact on economic growth. This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade (DTH), patent applications (PATENT), and growth (GDP) in Turkey using annual data for the period 1990-2021. In the analysis, unit root tests were first used to determine the stationarity levels of the series. The Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis was employed to estimate appropriate lag lengths, and variance decomposition methods were used. The findings from the analysis suggest that the ability of the GDP variable to explain changes in the DTH variable is weaker compared to the PATENT variable. The ability of the DTH variable to explain changes is weak when considering the GDP variable but stronger when considering the PATENT variable. It was found that changes in the PATENT variable explain changes in the DTH variable by 35% more effectively than the GDP variable. The impact of stochastic shocks in the independent variables on the dependent variable was examined using impulse response analysis. When a one-unit shock is applied to the PATENT variable, the DTH variable is positively affected. The GDP variable and the PATENT variable themselves initially exhibit a small negative impact before moving positively. When a one-unit shock is applied to the DTH variable, it responds positively to this shock. The GDP variable responds negatively in the first two periods, and the PATENT variable responds negatively in the first five periods; both show a positive response in subsequent periods. When a one-unit shock is applied to the GDP variable, it initially decreases rapidly, becoming negative in the first two periods, and then stabilizes with a positive effect. The DTH variable is negative in the first two periods and then remains mostly stable in subsequent periods. The PATENT variable responds negatively for the first five periods, after which the declining trend disappears, and the positive effect stabilizes. According to the results of the Granger causality test, a unidirectional causal relationship was found from growth and patent applications to terms of trade. Additionally, there is a unidirectional causal relationship from patent applications to growth.