Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Sustainable Finance, Springer Nature, ss.291-306, 2026
Climate change poses a serious threat to agricultural production and rural sustainability by increasing the severity and frequency of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, hailstorms, and extreme temperatures. In this context, agricultural insurance plays a vital role in mitigating farmers’ financial losses and ensuring the continuity of food production systems. This study aims to analyze the responsiveness of agricultural insurance to climate-induced disasters in Türkiye by establishing three regression models based on annual data 2007–2024. OLS Regression was applied to examine the effects of climate-related independent variables—Temperature Anomaly (SA), Precipitation Anomaly (PA), and Number of Meteorological Disasters (NMD)—on key agricultural insurance indicators: Agricultural Premium as a share of GDP (AP), Agricultural Insurance Loss Ratio (ALR), and Average Insured Amount per policy (AIA). Data were obtained from TARSİM, TURKSTAT, and the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). The results reveal that the number of meteorological disasters (NMD) has a positive impact on all three insurance indicators, suggesting that the increasing frequency of disasters intensifies both insurance demand and the system’s compensation obligations. On the other hand, while temperature and precipitation anomalies do not significantly affect premium volume or loss ratios, they positively influence the average insured amount per policy (AIA). These findings underscore the vulnerability of Türkiye’s agricultural sector to climate change and highlight the critical role of TARSİM-supported insurance products in protecting rural livelihoods and ensuring economic stability. By empirically assessing the link between climate risks and agricultural insurance, this study contributes to the literature on sustainable risk management. The insights generated may also guide policy development in other climate-vulnerable regions. Ensuring the long-term sustainability, inclusiveness, and resilience of climate-adaptive insurance mechanisms remains a national priority for fostering a more robust and climate-resilient agricultural economy.